Chelsea — opposition report

Premier League 2026/27 · 8 matches (2026-08-24 to 2026-10-24) · W4 D1 L3 · goals 17–15 · npxG 9.3–10.6 · WhoScored event data, every sequence rebuilt from the raw feed

Early season: built from 8 league matches. League ranks and splits move a lot at this stage — read them as provisional, and lean on the clips.

The short version

How to beat themgame plan

Each line is generated from a finding that cleared its evidence bar; nothing here is a generic coaching point. The grey line says what it rests on; the button opens the sequences.

Beating their press

  1. In your own build-up area, play on one or two touches: don't try to dribble past their press, and keep first touches clean.

    37% of their high regains come straight after the opponent tries to dribble past someone or takes a bad touch (league median 29%); only 26% come from forward passes.

  2. Copy the sides that escaped it: Everton got out 64% (long on 36%).

    Average escape rate against them is 40%.

Transitions

  1. When you win it, go straight through the middle immediately.

    43% of the xG they concede after losing the ball comes straight through the middle (22 attacks, 8 shots), against 19% of their own attacking xG through that channel.

Set pieces

  1. Avoid conceding corners; mark Jorrel Hato first.

    20% of their corners end in a shot; first contacts: Jorrel Hato (2), João Pedro (2), Pedro Neto (1).

Shape and structurein possession, by phase

Where each player takes the ball in each phase of their possession, and who passes to whom. Event data has no off-ball positions, so this is the shape of their touches — the standard event-data proxy. A phase is defined by where the ball is, so the dots sit inside that phase's third (shaded): read the order and the width, not the depth of each line. Chelsea attack left to right.

Levi Colwill → Emiliano Martínez: 24Emiliano Martínez → Levi Colwill: 22Emiliano Martínez → Maxence Lacroix: 19Levi Colwill → Pep Chavarría: 17Maxence Lacroix → Josh Acheampong: 16Maxence Lacroix → Emiliano Martínez: 16Emiliano Martínez (GK) -- 183 touchesE. MartínezLevi Colwill (FB) -- 151 touchesL. ColwillPep Chavarría / Jorrel Hato (WM) -- 116 touchesP. Chavarría / J. HatoMaxence Lacroix (CB) -- 109 touchesM. LacroixJordan Henderson / Moisés Caicedo / Roméo Lavia (CM) -- 94 touchesJ. Henderson / M. CaicedoJosh Acheampong (FB) -- 67 touchesJ. AcheampongWesley Fofana (FB) -- 49 touchesW. FofanaMorgan Rogers (AM) -- 45 touchesM. RogersMalo Gusto (CM) -- 42 touchesM. GustoReece James (CM) -- 31 touchesR. James

attacking → · shaded = the build-up zone

Most involved
  • Emiliano Martínez33% of build-up phases
  • Levi Colwill25% of build-up phases
  • Maxence Lacroix20% of build-up phases
  • Pep Chavarría13% of build-up phases
Main connections
  • Levi Colwill → Emiliano Martínez24
  • Emiliano Martínez → Levi Colwill22
  • Emiliano Martínez → Maxence Lacroix19
  • Levi Colwill → Pep Chavarría17
  • Maxence Lacroix → Josh Acheampong16
  • Maxence Lacroix → Emiliano Martínez16

428 build-up phases. Dot = the median spot of a player's touches in this phase; size = share of touches; lines = consecutive touches between two players.

Their pressout of possession

31defensive actions per match in the opponent's final 40%
40%of opponent build-ups got out into the next third
4.4high regains per match
24%of those regains led to a shot

Who presses

  • Morgan Rogers45
  • João Pedro41
  • Cole Palmer28
  • Pedro Neto22
  • Jorrel Hato14
  • Pep Chavarría12

Tackles, interceptions, recoveries, blocks, challenges and fouls in the opponent's final 40%.

Every ball won in the opponent's third, by source

159 in the window. The press on a build-up = the first two rows: 32 (4.0 a match).

sourcetimesshareper matchshot
press: settled build-up taken off them3119%3.913%
press: their restart forced into an error before they settled11%0.10%
counter-press: won straight back after losing it85%1.00%
second ball: the opponent touched it but never controlled it11975%14.932%
↳ rebound after their own shot (saved or blocked)2013%2.545%
↳ their cross / ball into the box, cleared4931%6.129%
↳ their long ball, only headed or touched away138%1.623%
↳ after their own throw-in / set piece64%0.817%
↳ loose ball in their combination play (pass blocked or tackled)3119%3.935%

What triggers a regain

opponent wasshareleaguerank
dribbling or a loose touch37%29%3 / 20
passing forward26%25%9 / 20
passing sideways11%6%2 / 20
passing to a full-back11%14%14 / 20
going long6%7%14 / 20
passing back3%3%8 / 20
passing to the keeper3%0%6 / 20
taking a throw-in3%3%11 / 20
a loose ball0%0%1 / 20

Who got out, and how

0%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%share of build-ups that went longgot out of the pressEverton: got out 64%, went long 36% (11 build-ups)EvertonBrighton: got out 54%, went long 19% (26 build-ups)BrightonBrentford: got out 44%, went long 22% (18 build-ups)Arsenal: got out 43%, went long 43% (14 build-ups)Bournemouth: got out 41%, went long 27% (22 build-ups)Tottenham: got out 37%, went long 30% (27 build-ups)Fulham: got out 32%, went long 23% (31 build-ups)Hull City: got out 14%, went long 43% (14 build-ups)Hull City

The opponents who went long most (38% of build-ups) got out 39% of the time; those who mostly played short (23% long) got out 43%. That is a lean, not proven at 20 matches (p=0.7584).

Best escapes: Everton 64%; Brighton 54%; Brentford 44%. One dot per match; hover for the opponent.

Transitions

When they win it

11.1fast attacks per match (counters, high transitions, high ball-wins)
18%end in a shot

Most often started by Cole Palmer (11), Maxence Lacroix (9), Jordan Henderson (7), Roméo Lavia (6).

Counter-press: losing it, by where

lost inlosseswon back within 5sled to a shot
own third3135%13%
midfield16021%6%
final third24225%1%

When they lose it — where the damage comes

39%30 attacks · 10 shots · 0.8 xG43%22 attacks · 8 shots · 0.9 xG18%54 attacks · 6 shots · 0.4 xG

13.2 opponent attacks per match after winning the ball in open play that broke forward fast or reached the final third. Shading and % = share of the xG they produced, by the channel they used. Chelsea's goal is on the left. Central attacks carry more xG for every team, so compare with Chelsea's own attacking xG in the same kind of channel (centre, or the average flank): centre 43% conceded vs 19% own, left 39% conceded vs 40% own, right 18% conceded vs 40% own.

Centre
Left
Right

Transition types

Every real turnover, named by the situation it came from. "Fast" = the side with the ball reached the final third within 10 seconds. Only real turnovers appear here: for everything the press wins high, including restarts it forced into an error, see "Every ball won in the opponent’s third" in the press section.

When they win the ball

typetimessharefastshotxG
Won high from a settled build-up (press)346%lg 4%35%9%lg 11%0.2
Won after their long possession (10+ passes)7112%lg 9%14%3%lg 3%0.2
Won straight back after losing it (counter-press)6411%lg 13%25%6%lg 7%0.5
Won by stopping their counter122%lg 4%0%0%lg 0%0.0
Won in midfield12722%lg 25%34%9%lg 6%1.2
Won deep in own third24442%lg 38%11%3%lg 3%0.9
Won from their set piece315%lg 5%6%3%lg 3%0.1

When they lose the ball

typetimesshareopponent fastshot againstxG
Lost in own build-up under pressure235%lg 4%22%4%lg 13%0.0
Lost after own long possession (10+ passes)5812%lg 9%12%7%lg 3%0.5
Lost straight after winning it5210%lg 13%38%6%lg 8%0.3
Lost during own counter163%lg 4%19%6%lg 0%0.1
Lost in midfield13928%lg 25%29%8%lg 6%0.9
Lost in the final third (attack broke down)18537%lg 39%10%3%lg 3%0.7
Lost from own set piece245%lg 5%17%12%lg 2%0.2

Possessions and turnovers in detailsub-categories

Every controlled possession is typed by how it was played, and every real turnover (a possession that was established and then lost) by what the losing side was doing, how it lost the ball and what the winner did next. "Settled" = sustained or worked possessions; "unsettled" = short, second-ball, counter and direct possessions.

20%of their turnovers the opponent turns into a fast attack · league 22%
49%Lost balls the opponent can’t keep · league 50%
6%of balls lost from settled possession lead to a shot against · league 4%
5%of balls lost from unsettled possession lead to a shot against · league 6%
19%of the balls they win become a fast attack · league 21%
5%of the balls they win produce a shot · league 5%

How they play their possessions (638 controlled open-play possessions)

typetimesshareended in a shotavg passes
sustained circulation (10+ passes)8113%lg 11%10%lg 16%14.5
worked possession (4-9 passes)16426%lg 26%12%lg 10%5.8
direct attack8513%lg 14%5%lg 2%1.5
short possession (0-3 passes)12620%lg 22%3%1.4

When they lose the ball (497 turnovers) — their rest defence

the side losing it was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)5812%12%10%45%7%0.5pass cut out 37, bad touch 9
worked possession (4-9 passes)13217%9%12%54%6%0.6pass cut out 67, long ball lost 27
direct attack6325%17%8%38%3%0.1long ball lost 26, pass cut out 25
short possession (0-3 passes)9729%12%5%48%6%0.6pass cut out 38, bad touch 22
second-ball possession10016%19%5%52%5%0.5pass cut out 49, long ball lost 22
counter / fast transition2322%4%4%48%4%0.1pass cut out 12, bad touch 7
set piece2417%21%12%50%12%0.2pass cut out 15, long ball lost 6

How they lose it

mechanismtimesshareled to a shot against
pass cut out24349%lg 52%5%
long ball lost11122%lg 24%7%
bad touch8116%lg 14%11%
tackled / dispossessed306%lg 6%0%
failed dribble306%lg 6%3%

When they win the ball (583 turnovers) — what they do with it

the opponent was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)7315%14%10%53%4%0.3pass cut out 40, long ball lost 19
worked possession (4-9 passes)16820%12%6%55%4%0.9pass cut out 90, long ball lost 45
direct attack5527%24%7%40%9%0.5long ball lost 24, pass cut out 17
short possession (0-3 passes)10025%12%2%57%8%0.9pass cut out 45, long ball lost 25
second-ball possession13618%10%7%60%4%0.4pass cut out 78, long ball lost 20
counter / fast transition205%20%10%60%0%0.0pass cut out 15, bad touch 3
set piece316%16%10%61%3%0.1pass cut out 16, long ball lost 9

Fast attack = their final third or box reached within 10s. Secured = kept 10s+ or 4+ passes. Lost straight back = controlled, then lost within 5s. Can’t keep it = won the ball but never got it under control (cleared it, headed it away, blocked it or lost it at once).

Phase by phase: the typessub-categories

Each phase split into the situations it is made of, every row with its league median and clips. Shots are their own category: a possession that ends in a shot has finished, it has not lost the ball.

Build-up: how it starts and how it gets out (145 build-ups)

typetimessharegot outreached the boxlost in build-upshot
from the keeper / goal kick, played out short2316%lg 17%65%0%43%0%
from the keeper / goal kick, went long (bypass)2114%lg 13%33%19%57%14%
from the keeper / goal kick, stuck / recycled118%0%0%55%0%
from the back line, played out short96%lg 8%78%11%11%11%
from the back line, went long (bypass)118%lg 5%27%27%73%18%
from the back line, stuck / recycled64%0%17%50%0%
straight after winning it, played out short2618%lg 16%77%38%19%4%
straight after winning it, went long (bypass)1712%lg 11%18%18%76%6%
straight after winning it, stuck / recycled1410%0%7%7%7%

Their press: what happens to every opponent build-up (181)

outcometimesshareopponent shot
won it high1810%lg 10%0%
forced long, then won it back4625%lg 28%0%
forced long, they kept it84%lg 5%25%
they played through short5430%lg 30%9%
kept them stuck (recycled back)5530%lg 24%0%

Won high = the ball won in the opponent's own third. Forced long = the opponent left its third with a long ball (then either lost it in that possession, or kept it).

Chance creation: what created their shots

created byshotsshare of open playxGxG per shotgoals
cross23%lg 12%0.30.15lg 0.111
cutback1013%lg 9%1.40.14lg 0.112
through ball11%lg 3%0.10.13lg 0.170
short pass / combination4660%lg 52%3.50.08lg 0.087
long ball56%lg 4%0.50.09lg 0.070
individual (dribble / self-made)68%lg 9%0.60.09lg 0.081
rebound / second ball79%lg 9%0.50.07lg 0.130
corner (set piece)14–1.60.111
free kick (indirect) (set piece)6–0.30.052
direct free kick (set piece)7–0.20.021
throw-in (set piece)3–0.40.142

Chances they concede: what created the opponent's shots

created byshotssharexGxG per shotgoals
cross811%lg 12%0.90.121
cutback34%lg 9%0.40.140
through ball34%lg 3%0.40.150
short pass / combination3244%lg 54%2.40.083
long ball68%lg 4%0.60.090
individual (dribble / self-made)912%lg 10%0.50.061
rebound / second ball1216%lg 9%1.50.132
corner (set piece)12–2.40.203
free kick (indirect) (set piece)6–0.60.110
direct free kick (set piece)2–0.00.020
throw-in (set piece)8–0.70.093

How their shots end

endingshotsshare
goal1716%lg 9%
keeper held it109%lg 9%
keeper parried it1413%lg 11%
blocked3432%lg 32%
off target3028%lg 39%
hit the woodwork22%

Penalties excluded. A "save" by an outfield player is a block.

Keeper transitions

After their keeper held a shot (13), median release 10s; league share turned into a fast attack 14%:

their keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack00%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack323%
keeper slowed the game1077%

After their own shot was held by the opponent keeper (10); league share broken against fast 14%:

the opponent keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack330%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack330%
keeper slowed the game440%

Fast = the keeper's side reached its final third within 15s of the save. Quick = first pass within 6s.

When it breaks downevery phase

The other half of each phase above. Their own phases break down when they lose the ball (real turnovers only); their press and block break down when the opponent gets through. Each card: how often, how, where, who is involved, and what it costs them.

Build-up breaks down

123 balls lost in 428 build-up phases (29%)

giveaways per 10 build-up phases: 2.5/10 · league 2.7/10

How
  • long ball lost72
  • pass cut out30
  • bad touch13
  • tackled / dispossessed6
Where
  • left half-space27
  • centre27
  • left wing26
  • right wing25
Who
  • Emiliano Martínez28
  • Mike Penders11
  • Levi Colwill9
  • Josh Acheampong9

What it costs: 28% turned into a fast attack · 50% the opponent can’t keep · 7% led to a shot · 0.5 xG

Progression breaks down

178 balls lost in 604 middle-third phases (29%)

giveaways per 10 middle-third phases: 2.5/10 · league 2.8/10

How
  • pass cut out96
  • bad touch27
  • long ball lost25
  • failed dribble17
Where
  • centre45
  • left wing38
  • right wing38
  • left half-space30
Who
  • Cole Palmer31
  • Morgan Rogers29
  • João Pedro19
  • Jordan Henderson13

What it costs: 24% turned into a fast attack · 39% the opponent can’t keep · 8% led to a shot · 1.3 xG

Final third breaks down

171 balls lost in 397 final-third phases (43%)

deliveries into the box that fail to arrive: 55% · league 60%

How
  • pass cut out108
  • bad touch40
  • tackled / dispossessed10
  • failed dribble9
Where
  • centre81
  • left half-space31
  • right half-space29
  • right wing15
Who
  • Morgan Rogers30
  • João Pedro28
  • Cole Palmer27
  • Pedro Neto18

What it costs: 9% turned into a fast attack · 60% the opponent can’t keep · 3% led to a shot · 0.5 xG

50 deliveries into the box did not arrive

Counter-attacks fail

23 of 40 counter-attacks lost (57%)

attacking transitions that produce a shot: 18% · league 18%

How
  • pass cut out12
  • bad touch7
  • failed dribble2
  • tackled / dispossessed1
Where
  • centre8
  • right half-space6
  • right wing4
  • left half-space4
Who
  • Morgan Rogers5
  • Pedro Neto5
  • Cole Palmer4
  • Malo Gusto2

What it costs: 22% turned into a fast attack · 48% the opponent can’t keep · 4% led to a shot · 0.1 xG

40 counters: 11 ended in a shot, 23 were lost, 6 slowed down or went out

Their press is beaten

66 of 163 opponent build-ups got out (40%)

opponent build-ups that get out cleanly: 40% · league 46%

How
  • short pass36
  • long ball13
  • carry11
  • switch of play1
Where
  • right wing20
  • right half-space13
  • left half-space12
  • left wing11
Who
  • centre-back25
  • central midfielder13
  • goalkeeper9
  • full-back8

What it costs: 24% reached the final third · 8% led to a shot · 0.3 xG

Sides are their own: "down the left" = down their left.

Their block is broken

118 box entries in 463 opponent final-third phases (25%)

opponent final-third phases that create: 44% · league 51%

How
  • carry72
  • short pass22
  • cross12
  • dribble4
Where
  • centre35
  • right half-space34
  • left half-space30
  • right wing13
Who
  • winger34
  • full-back25
  • attacking midfielder17
  • central midfielder15

What it costs: 43% led to a shot · 6.6 xG

Sides are their own.

Set pieces backfire

24 set pieces lost in open play

How
  • pass cut out15
  • long ball lost6
  • failed dribble1
  • bad touch1
Where
  • centre11
  • right wing4
  • left half-space4
  • right half-space3
Who
  • Morgan Rogers4
  • João Pedro3
  • Jordan Henderson3
  • Cole Palmer2

What it costs: 17% turned into a fast attack · 50% the opponent can’t keep · 12% led to a shot · 0.2 xG

Their corners and free kicks that were lost in open play, and what the opponent did next.

Set piecesattacking corners

45corners (5.6 per match)
20%end in a shot
0.7xG from corners

Delivery

  • central44%shot 10% · 0.3 xG
  • near post40%shot 17% · 0.3 xG
  • short11%shot 60% · 0.1 xG
  • far post4%shot 50% · 0.0 xG

Who

Takers: Jordan Henderson (15), Pedro Neto (13), Reece James (10)

First contact in the box: Jorrel Hato (2), João Pedro (2), Pedro Neto (1), Cole Palmer (1), Valentín Barco (1)

Key players

What each player does in the phases, counted over the window. Only lines that clear a minimum count are shown.

Cole PalmerAM
  • takes it into the final third 16 times (56% become a chance)
  • gets it into the box 17 times (59% end in a shot)
  • 25 shots, 1.9 npxG, 2 goals
  • 17 ball wins high up the pitch
Morgan RogersAM
  • gets it into the box 20 times (50% end in a shot)
  • 20 shots, 1.5 npxG, 4 goals
  • 16 ball wins high up the pitch
  • 55 giveaways, 3 led to an opponent shot
Pedro NetoWM
  • gets it into the box 27 times (52% end in a shot)
João PedroST
  • gets it into the box 16 times (12% end in a shot)
  • 16 shots, 2.2 npxG, 5 goals
Levi ColwillFB
  • plays 17 build-up exits (53% carry on cleanly)
Emiliano MartínezGK
  • plays 24 build-up exits (46% carry on cleanly)

Where a player changes the outcome (p<0.05)

Against the leaguesupporting evidence

The comparison behind the report: each behaviour as a rate per opportunity, ranked among the 20 Premier League clubs' full seasons, with how many of the 8 matches sat on the same side of the league median. "Style" is never a verdict.

behaviourChelsealeague medianrankmatches
styleturnovers won by stopping a counter2%4%20 / 206/8
stylefinal-third entries down the right52%42%1 / 205/8
stylefinal-third entries down the left35%45%20 / 206/8
strengthopponent final-third phases that created44%51%19 / 206/8
strengthshots off target28%39%20 / 208/8
weaknessballs they won but can't keep (cleared, blocked, lost loose)55%49%1 / 206/8
strengthshots scored16%9%2 / 205/8
stylerun in behind per 100 final third phases4.3/1006.3/10020 / 207/8
stylebuild-up exits down the right29%39%20 / 207/8
styleopen-play shots conceded from rebounds / second balls16%9%1 / 206/8
styleopen-play shots created by crosses3%12%20 / 207/8
Their most dangerous routes
phaseroutetimesshottheir average
How they change against different opponents
splitbehaviourabp
against the more aggressive pressers vs the deeper / passive sidesbuild-up exits played by the goalkeeper48%24%0.0135
against the more aggressive pressers vs the deeper / passive sidesfinal-third entries by carrying it in34%17%0.0283
when leading vs when levelbuild-up giveaways that led to an opponent shot within 15s0%8%0.0318
when trailing vs when levelchance-creation phases that produced a shot13%39%0.001
when trailing vs when levelfinal-third phases that created (box entry or key pass)62%44%0.0053
when trailing vs when levelmiddle-third phases that progressed into the final third88%66%0.0134
The 8 matches
dateopponentresultnpxGopponent presswhat happened
2026-08-24at FulhamW 3-21.9–1.2pressed aggressivelyWon 3-2, chances 1.85 v 1.23 xG. Fulham pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 11.5, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: counter-attacks 6.0/match, far above their usual 4.5/match.
2026-08-30vs BrightonW 4-32.6–1.0pressed aggressivelyWon 4-3, chances 2.63 v 1.04 xG. Brighton pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 8.1, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: PPDA, strict (opponent passes in their own 60% per committed ball-winning action) 31.7, far above their usual 18.1.
2026-09-06at ArsenalL 1-20.6–1.9pressed aggressivelyLost 1-2 and the chances agreed (0.59 v 1.94 xG). Arsenal pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 11.9, league median 14.4) and went long on 55% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: ball given away during build-up 8.0/match, far below their usual 13.4/match.
2026-09-12vs Hull CityD 2-20.8–1.5mid-intensity pressDrew 2-2 (0.78 v 1.51 xG). Hull City pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 17.7, league median 14.4) and went long on 75% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: opponent build-ups that got out cleanly 14%, far below their usual 41%.
2026-09-18at BrentfordL 0-30.8–1.9sat deep / passiveLost 0-3 and the chances agreed (0.80 v 1.94 xG). Brentford defended deep and let them have the ball (strict PPDA 20.7, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: build-up exits down the left 83%, far above their usual 48%.
2026-10-10vs BournemouthW 5-10.8–1.7mid-intensity pressWon 5-1 on fewer chances (0.77 v 1.69 xG). Bournemouth pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 16.4, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: giveaways regained within 5s (counter-press) 12%, far below their usual 24%.
2026-10-17at EvertonW 2-01.4–0.5sat deep / passiveWon 2-0, chances 1.39 v 0.49 xG. Everton defended deep and let them have the ball (strict PPDA 20.9, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: opponent build-ups that got out cleanly 64%, far above their usual 41%.
2026-10-24vs TottenhamL 0-20.5–0.7pressed aggressivelyLost 0-2 and the chances agreed (0.51 v 0.74 xG). Tottenham pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 11.4, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: box entries with a cross 0%, far below their usual 7%.

Method and limits

◀ Tactical Analyst
Vision AI · building report