Leeds — opposition report

Premier League 2026/27 · 8 matches (2026-08-22 to 2026-10-25) · W2 D5 L1 · goals 9–6 · npxG 9.8–9.8 · WhoScored event data, every sequence rebuilt from the raw feed

Early season: built from 8 league matches. League ranks and splits move a lot at this stage — read them as provisional, and lean on the clips.

The short version

How to beat themgame plan

Each line is generated from a finding that cleared its evidence bar; nothing here is a generic coaching point. The grey line says what it rests on; the button opens the sequences.

Beating their press

  1. Copy the sides that escaped it: Brentford got out 60% (long on 33%), Arsenal got out 56% (long on 22%).

    Average escape rate against them is 39%.

Transitions

  1. When you win it, go straight through the middle immediately.

    37% of the xG they concede after losing the ball comes straight through the middle (20 attacks, 8 shots), against 23% of their own attacking xG through that channel.

Shape and structurein possession, by phase

Where each player takes the ball in each phase of their possession, and who passes to whom. Event data has no off-ball positions, so this is the shape of their touches — the standard event-data proxy. A phase is defined by where the ball is, so the dots sit inside that phase's third (shaded): read the order and the width, not the depth of each line. Leeds attack left to right.

James Trafford → Tarik Muharemovic: 56Tarik Muharemovic → James Trafford: 40Nico Elvedi → James Trafford: 28James Trafford → Nico Elvedi: 28Tarik Muharemovic → Ethan Ampadu: 21Tarik Muharemovic → Ao Tanaka: 19James Trafford (GK) -- 331 touchesJ. TraffordTarik Muharemovic (FB) -- 228 touchesT. MuharemovicNico Elvedi / Jaka Bijol (CB) -- 164 touchesN. Elvedi / J. BijolEthan Ampadu / Anton Stach (CM) -- 143 touchesE. Ampadu / A. StachJames Justin (FB) -- 93 touchesJ. JustinAo Tanaka (CM) -- 61 touchesA. TanakaGabriel Gudmundsson (WM) -- 60 touchesG. GudmundssonJayden Bogle (WM) -- 56 touchesJ. BogleDominic Calvert-Lewin (ST) -- 27 touchesD. Calvert-Lewin

attacking → · shaded = the build-up zone

Most involved
  • James Trafford55% of build-up phases
  • Tarik Muharemovic34% of build-up phases
  • Ethan Ampadu17% of build-up phases
  • James Justin17% of build-up phases
Main connections
  • James Trafford → Tarik Muharemovic56
  • Tarik Muharemovic → James Trafford40
  • Nico Elvedi → James Trafford28
  • James Trafford → Nico Elvedi28
  • Tarik Muharemovic → Ethan Ampadu21
  • Tarik Muharemovic → Ao Tanaka19

471 build-up phases. Dot = the median spot of a player's touches in this phase; size = share of touches; lines = consecutive touches between two players.

Their pressout of possession

41defensive actions per match in the opponent's final 40%
39%of opponent build-ups got out into the next third
3.9high regains per match
27%of those regains led to a shot

Who presses

  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin70
  • Anton Stach37
  • Ethan Ampadu30
  • Brenden Aaronson27
  • James Justin23
  • Jayden Bogle22

Tackles, interceptions, recoveries, blocks, challenges and fouls in the opponent's final 40%.

Every ball won in the opponent's third, by source

205 in the window. The press on a build-up = the first two rows: 27 (3.4 a match).

sourcetimesshareper matchshot
press: settled build-up taken off them2613%3.28%
press: their restart forced into an error before they settled10%0.1100%
counter-press: won straight back after losing it136%1.615%
second ball: the opponent touched it but never controlled it16580%20.624%
↳ rebound after their own shot (saved or blocked)168%2.031%
↳ their cross / ball into the box, cleared5929%7.436%
↳ their long ball, only headed or touched away3517%4.411%
↳ after their own throw-in / set piece84%1.00%
↳ loose ball in their combination play (pass blocked or tackled)4723%5.919%

What triggers a regain

opponent wasshareleaguerank
passing to a full-back29%13%1 / 20
dribbling or a loose touch26%31%15 / 20
passing forward16%25%17 / 20
going long10%7%6 / 20
passing sideways6%6%9 / 20
passing back3%3%6 / 20
taking a throw-in3%3%8 / 20
passing to the keeper0%0%9 / 20
a loose ball0%0%1 / 20

Who got out, and how

0%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%share of build-ups that went longgot out of the pressBrentford: got out 60%, went long 33% (15 build-ups)BrentfordArsenal: got out 56%, went long 22% (18 build-ups)ArsenalCrystal Palace: got out 46%, went long 15% (13 build-ups)Man Utd: got out 37%, went long 63% (19 build-ups)Sunderland: got out 35%, went long 35% (17 build-ups)Brighton: got out 35%, went long 39% (23 build-ups)Nottingham Forest: got out 29%, went long 29% (21 build-ups)Newcastle: got out 27%, went long 45% (22 build-ups)

The opponents who went long most (46% of build-ups) got out 34% of the time; those who mostly played short (25% long) got out 48%. That is a lean, not proven at 20 matches (p=0.0541).

Best escapes: Brentford 60%; Arsenal 56%; Crystal Palace 46%. One dot per match; hover for the opponent.

Transitions

When they win it

11.6fast attacks per match (counters, high transitions, high ball-wins)
15%end in a shot

Most often started by Ethan Ampadu (16), Anton Stach (14), Brenden Aaronson (7), Jaka Bijol (7).

Counter-press: losing it, by where

lost inlosseswon back within 5sled to a shot
own third3837%18%
midfield17734%5%
final third27928%1%

When they lose it — where the damage comes

25%42 attacks · 8 shots · 0.4 xG37%20 attacks · 8 shots · 0.7 xG37%46 attacks · 7 shots · 0.7 xG

13.5 opponent attacks per match after winning the ball in open play that broke forward fast or reached the final third. Shading and % = share of the xG they produced, by the channel they used. Leeds's goal is on the left. Central attacks carry more xG for every team, so compare with Leeds's own attacking xG in the same kind of channel (centre, or the average flank): right 37% conceded vs 38% own, centre 37% conceded vs 23% own, left 25% conceded vs 38% own.

Right
Centre
Left

Transition types

Every real turnover, named by the situation it came from. "Fast" = the side with the ball reached the final third within 10 seconds. Only real turnovers appear here: for everything the press wins high, including restarts it forced into an error, see "Every ball won in the opponent’s third" in the press section.

When they win the ball

typetimessharefastshotxG
Won high from a settled build-up (press)254%lg 5%32%8%lg 11%0.4
Won after their long possession (10+ passes)427%lg 9%19%0%lg 3%0.0
Won straight back after losing it (counter-press)7613%lg 13%28%4%lg 7%0.1
Won by stopping their counter173%lg 4%12%0%lg 0%0.0
Won in midfield16427%lg 25%26%4%lg 6%0.6
Won deep in own third24741%lg 38%11%1%lg 3%0.2
Won from their set piece285%lg 5%7%0%lg 3%0.0

When they lose the ball

typetimesshareopponent fastshot againstxG
Lost in own build-up under pressure305%lg 4%30%20%lg 11%0.5
Lost after own long possession (10+ passes)387%lg 9%18%5%lg 3%0.2
Lost straight after winning it8115%lg 12%30%6%lg 8%0.3
Lost during own counter234%lg 4%13%0%lg 0%0.0
Lost in midfield13224%lg 25%25%6%lg 7%0.6
Lost in the final third (attack broke down)22040%lg 39%9%2%lg 3%0.4
Lost from own set piece275%lg 5%22%4%lg 2%0.1

Possessions and turnovers in detailsub-categories

Every controlled possession is typed by how it was played, and every real turnover (a possession that was established and then lost) by what the losing side was doing, how it lost the ball and what the winner did next. "Settled" = sustained or worked possessions; "unsettled" = short, second-ball, counter and direct possessions.

18%of their turnovers the opponent turns into a fast attack · league 22%
53%Lost balls the opponent can’t keep · league 50%
5%of balls lost from settled possession lead to a shot against · league 4%
5%of balls lost from unsettled possession lead to a shot against · league 6%
18%of the balls they win become a fast attack · league 21%
3%of the balls they win produce a shot · league 5%

How they play their possessions (664 controlled open-play possessions)

typetimesshareended in a shotavg passes
sustained circulation (10+ passes)528%lg 11%10%lg 16%13.3
worked possession (4-9 passes)15924%lg 26%8%lg 10%5.9
direct attack9114%lg 13%1%lg 2%1.6
short possession (0-3 passes)14522%lg 21%2%1.5

When they lose the ball (551 turnovers) — their rest defence

the side losing it was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)4020%10%10%57%5%0.2pass cut out 23, bad touch 6
worked possession (4-9 passes)12022%15%3%52%5%0.7pass cut out 59, long ball lost 39
direct attack7714%16%14%48%0%0.0pass cut out 31, long ball lost 30
short possession (0-3 passes)12123%10%7%55%7%0.6pass cut out 63, long ball lost 25
second-ball possession13314%13%14%53%5%0.4pass cut out 70, long ball lost 24
counter / fast transition3312%9%15%58%3%0.0pass cut out 22, failed dribble 4
set piece2722%7%11%56%4%0.1pass cut out 15, long ball lost 6

How they lose it

mechanismtimesshareled to a shot against
pass cut out28351%lg 52%5%
long ball lost13124%lg 24%3%
bad touch7313%lg 14%5%
failed dribble367%lg 6%3%
tackled / dispossessed224%lg 6%5%

When they win the ball (599 turnovers) — what they do with it

the opponent was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)4219%12%2%55%0%0.0pass cut out 31, long ball lost 5
worked possession (4-9 passes)15011%12%8%63%1%0.1pass cut out 87, long ball lost 41
direct attack8233%17%10%34%4%0.3long ball lost 52, pass cut out 21
short possession (0-3 passes)12322%7%8%57%5%0.5pass cut out 56, long ball lost 29
second-ball possession15018%13%7%54%3%0.4pass cut out 73, long ball lost 37
counter / fast transition2412%17%8%54%0%0.0pass cut out 17, bad touch 5
set piece287%4%18%61%0%0.0pass cut out 11, long ball lost 11

Fast attack = their final third or box reached within 10s. Secured = kept 10s+ or 4+ passes. Lost straight back = controlled, then lost within 5s. Can’t keep it = won the ball but never got it under control (cleared it, headed it away, blocked it or lost it at once).

Phase by phase: the typessub-categories

Each phase split into the situations it is made of, every row with its league median and clips. Shots are their own category: a possession that ends in a shot has finished, it has not lost the ball.

Build-up: how it starts and how it gets out (193 build-ups)

typetimessharegot outreached the boxlost in build-upshot
from the keeper / goal kick, played out short4523%lg 17%82%24%20%2%
from the keeper / goal kick, went long (bypass)2915%lg 13%38%10%62%0%
from the keeper / goal kick, stuck / recycled105%0%10%50%10%
from the back line, played out short168%lg 8%62%6%12%0%
from the back line, went long (bypass)95%lg 5%22%11%78%0%
from the back line, stuck / recycled95%0%11%56%0%
from a throw-in, played out short74%lg 4%71%14%29%0%
from a throw-in, went long (bypass)105%lg 3%40%0%60%0%
from a throw-in, stuck / recycled53%0%0%40%0%
straight after winning it, played out short2111%lg 16%62%29%24%10%
straight after winning it, went long (bypass)2111%lg 11%48%0%48%0%
straight after winning it, stuck / recycled116%0%0%73%0%

Their press: what happens to every opponent build-up (168)

outcometimesshareopponent shot
won it high127%lg 10%0%
forced long, then won it back5533%lg 26%0%
forced long, they kept it106%lg 5%20%
they played through short4225%lg 30%14%
kept them stuck (recycled back)4929%lg 24%6%

Won high = the ball won in the opponent's own third. Forced long = the opponent left its third with a long ball (then either lost it in that possession, or kept it).

Chance creation: what created their shots

created byshotsshare of open playxGxG per shotgoals
cross1019%lg 12%1.00.10lg 0.110
cutback48%lg 9%0.60.16lg 0.111
through ball12%lg 3%0.10.09lg 0.170
short pass / combination2343%lg 53%2.30.10lg 0.083
long ball24%lg 4%0.10.04lg 0.080
individual (dribble / self-made)611%lg 9%0.50.09lg 0.080
rebound / second ball713%lg 9%1.10.16lg 0.130
corner (set piece)15–2.00.132
free kick (indirect) (set piece)5–0.20.050
direct free kick (set piece)4–0.10.021
throw-in (set piece)18–1.70.101

Chances they concede: what created the opponent's shots

created byshotssharexGxG per shotgoals
cross1114%lg 11%1.20.112
cutback79%lg 9%0.70.091
through ball34%lg 3%0.50.170
short pass / combination4053%lg 54%2.20.061
long ball23%lg 4%0.10.040
individual (dribble / self-made)912%lg 10%1.00.111
rebound / second ball45%lg 10%1.50.360
corner (set piece)15–1.10.081
free kick (indirect) (set piece)10–0.70.070
direct free kick (set piece)3–0.10.030
throw-in (set piece)10–0.80.080

How their shots end

endingshotsshare
goal88%lg 9%
keeper held it66%lg 9%
keeper parried it1516%lg 11%
blocked3436%lg 32%
off target3133%lg 39%
hit the woodwork11%

Penalties excluded. A "save" by an outfield player is a block.

Keeper transitions

After their keeper held a shot (16), median release 9s; league share turned into a fast attack 14%:

their keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack16%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack425%
keeper slowed the game1169%

After their own shot was held by the opponent keeper (6); league share broken against fast 14%:

the opponent keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack233%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack117%
keeper slowed the game350%

Fast = the keeper's side reached its final third within 15s of the save. Quick = first pass within 6s.

When it breaks downevery phase

The other half of each phase above. Their own phases break down when they lose the ball (real turnovers only); their press and block break down when the opponent gets through. Each card: how often, how, where, who is involved, and what it costs them.

Build-up breaks down

147 balls lost in 471 build-up phases (31%)

giveaways per 10 build-up phases: 2.8/10 · league 2.7/10

How
  • long ball lost86
  • pass cut out42
  • bad touch12
  • tackled / dispossessed2
Where
  • right wing40
  • right half-space34
  • centre28
  • left wing24
Who
  • James Trafford44
  • James Justin15
  • Tarik Muharemovic14
  • Jayden Bogle13

What it costs: 24% turned into a fast attack · 53% the opponent can’t keep · 7% led to a shot · 0.8 xG

Progression breaks down

191 balls lost in 635 middle-third phases (30%)

giveaways per 10 middle-third phases: 2.7/10 · league 2.8/10

How
  • pass cut out101
  • bad touch36
  • long ball lost29
  • failed dribble15
Where
  • right wing51
  • left wing44
  • centre44
  • right half-space29
Who
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin32
  • Noah Okafor27
  • Jayden Bogle26
  • Ethan Ampadu20

What it costs: 20% turned into a fast attack · 43% the opponent can’t keep · 4% led to a shot · 0.8 xG

Final third breaks down

178 balls lost in 442 final-third phases (40%)

deliveries into the box that fail to arrive: 62% · league 58%

How
  • pass cut out126
  • bad touch17
  • failed dribble15
  • long ball lost11
Where
  • centre79
  • right half-space28
  • right wing27
  • left wing22
Who
  • Jayden Bogle28
  • James Justin22
  • Gabriel Gudmundsson22
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin21

What it costs: 8% turned into a fast attack · 66% the opponent can’t keep · 2% led to a shot · 0.3 xG

78 deliveries into the box did not arrive

Counter-attacks fail

33 of 44 counter-attacks lost (75%)

attacking transitions that produce a shot: 15% · league 18%

How
  • pass cut out22
  • failed dribble4
  • bad touch4
  • tackled / dispossessed2
Where
  • centre18
  • right wing7
  • left wing4
  • left half-space2
Who
  • Gabriel Gudmundsson7
  • Noah Okafor6
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin5
  • Jayden Bogle4

What it costs: 12% turned into a fast attack · 58% the opponent can’t keep · 3% led to a shot · 0.0 xG

44 counters: 7 ended in a shot, 33 were lost, 4 slowed down or went out

Their press is beaten

58 of 148 opponent build-ups got out (39%)

opponent build-ups that get out cleanly: 39% · league 46%

How
  • short pass26
  • long ball17
  • carry11
  • clearance1
Where
  • right wing16
  • left wing15
  • right half-space12
  • centre7
Who
  • centre-back13
  • full-back12
  • central midfielder12
  • goalkeeper11

What it costs: 43% reached the final third · 14% led to a shot · 0.7 xG

Sides are their own: "down the left" = down their left.

Their block is broken

130 box entries in 459 opponent final-third phases (28%)

opponent final-third phases that create: 52% · league 50%

How
  • carry76
  • short pass27
  • cross13
  • long ball7
Where
  • centre51
  • right half-space36
  • left half-space21
  • left wing11
Who
  • winger38
  • attacking midfielder27
  • full-back19
  • central midfielder15

What it costs: 51% led to a shot · 7.4 xG

Sides are their own.

Set pieces backfire

27 set pieces lost in open play

How
  • pass cut out15
  • long ball lost6
  • bad touch5
  • failed dribble1
Where
  • centre9
  • right wing6
  • left wing5
  • left half-space4
Who
  • James Trafford6
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin5
  • Jayden Bogle5
  • Noah Okafor3

What it costs: 22% turned into a fast attack · 56% the opponent can’t keep · 4% led to a shot · 0.1 xG

Their corners and free kicks that were lost in open play, and what the opponent did next.

Set piecesattacking corners

33corners (4.1 per match)
18%end in a shot
0.3xG from corners

Delivery

  • central64%shot 14% · 0.2 xG
  • near post24%shot 12% · 0.0 xG
  • far post12%shot 50% · 0.1 xG

Who

Takers: Anton Stach (26), Harry Wilson (7)

First contact in the box: Tarik Muharemovic (3), James Justin (2), Anton Stach (1), Jayden Bogle (1), Noah Okafor (1)

Key players

What each player does in the phases, counted over the window. Only lines that clear a minimum count are shown.

Jayden BogleWM
  • gets it into the box 19 times (58% end in a shot)
  • 64 giveaways, 3 led to an opponent shot
Ethan AmpaduCM
  • gets it into the box 19 times (37% end in a shot)
Tarik MuharemovicFB
  • plays 38 build-up exits (55% carry on cleanly)
Anton StachCM
  • 18 ball wins high up the pitch
Dominic Calvert-LewinST
  • gets it into the box 13 times (46% end in a shot)
  • 59 giveaways, 3 led to an opponent shot
Noah OkaforAM
  • gets it into the box 11 times (55% end in a shot)
Ao TanakaCM
  • takes it into the final third 15 times (33% become a chance)
Jaka BijolCB
  • plays 16 build-up exits (56% carry on cleanly)
James TraffordGK
  • plays 30 build-up exits (53% carry on cleanly)

Where a player changes the outcome (p<0.05)

Against the leaguesupporting evidence

The comparison behind the report: each behaviour as a rate per opportunity, ranked among the 20 Premier League clubs' full seasons, with how many of the 8 matches sat on the same side of the league median. "Style" is never a verdict.

behaviourLeedsleague medianrankmatches
stylebox entries with a long ball14%3%1 / 207/8
weaknessturnovers won that produced a shot3%5%20 / 207/8
stylebox entries from the wide channels28%18%1 / 206/8
stylebox entries from the half-spaces34%50%20 / 207/8
stylebuild-up exits played by a full-back32%17%2 / 207/8
strengthnon-penalty xG per final-third sequence0.03 xG0.02 xG2 / 205/8
stylebuild-ups from the keeper played out short23%17%1 / 205/8
weaknessmiddle-third phases whose possession ended in a shot6%11%20 / 207/8
stylecut inside per 100 final third phases0.9/1002.1/10019 / 207/8
weaknessbuild-ups whose possession ended in a shot2%6%19 / 207/8
weaknessxG from own corners / free kicks0.08 xG0.19 xG20 / 208/8
stylebuild-ups straight after a regain played out short11%16%19 / 206/8
stylefinal-third entries played by a forward / AM / winger37%25%1 / 206/8
weaknessballs won from a settled opponent possession turned into a fast attack12%18%19 / 206/8
styleforward drop link per 100 build up phases3.4/1002.1/1002 / 207/8
Their most dangerous routes
phaseroutetimesshottheir average
How they change against different opponents
splitbehaviourabp
second half vs first halfbuild-up giveaways that led to an opponent shot within 15s12%0%0.0029
second half vs first halfbuild-up exits with a long ball34%53%0.0285
second half vs first halffinal-third phases that created (box entry or key pass)54%44%0.0464
The 8 matches
dateopponentresultnpxGopponent presswhat happened
2026-08-22at Nottingham ForestW 1-00.7–0.7mid-intensity pressWon 1-0, chances 0.69 v 0.74 xG. Nottingham Forest pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 14.3, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: build-up exits down the right 58%, far above their usual 39%.
2026-08-30vs BrentfordD 1-11.2–1.7pressed aggressivelyDrew 1-1 (1.21 v 1.74 xG). Brentford pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 10.1, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: chance-creation phases that produced a shot 20%, far below their usual 36%.
2026-09-05at BrightonD 1-11.9–1.8pressed aggressivelyDrew 1-1 (1.92 v 1.84 xG). Brighton pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 8.4, league median 14.4) and went long on 53% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: final-third phases that created (box entry or key pass) 60%, far above their usual 49%.
2026-09-14vs NewcastleW 4-12.1–0.7mid-intensity pressWon 4-1, chances 2.05 v 0.70 xG. Newcastle pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 13.2, league median 14.4) and went long on 62% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: middle-third phases that progressed into the final third 50%, far below their usual 62%.
2026-09-20vs Crystal PalaceD 0-01.2–1.0mid-intensity pressDrew 0-0 (1.21 v 0.97 xG). Crystal Palace pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 16.2, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: build-up exits with a long ball 29%, far below their usual 44%.
2026-10-10at ArsenalL 1-20.8–2.0mid-intensity pressLost 1-2 and the chances agreed (0.78 v 1.96 xG). Arsenal pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 15.1, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: giveaways that led to an opponent shot within 15s 7%, far above their usual 4%.
2026-10-18vs Man UtdD 1-11.2–0.9sat deep / passiveDrew 1-1 (1.23 v 0.90 xG). Man Utd defended deep and let them have the ball (strict PPDA 24.7, league median 14.4) and went long on 67% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: ball given away during build-up 25.0/match, far above their usual 16.5/match.
2026-10-25at SunderlandD 0-00.7–1.0mid-intensity pressDrew 0-0 (0.70 v 0.98 xG). Sunderland pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 17.1, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: build-ups that carried on into the next third under control 67%, far above their usual 50%.

Method and limits

◀ Tactical Analyst
Vision AI · building report