Newcastle — opposition report

Premier League 2026/27 · 8 matches (2026-08-23 to 2026-10-25) · W3 D2 L3 · goals 12–14 · npxG 8.2–12.9 · WhoScored event data, every sequence rebuilt from the raw feed

Early season: built from 8 league matches. League ranks and splits move a lot at this stage — read them as provisional, and lean on the clips.

The short version

How to beat themgame plan

Each line is generated from a finding that cleared its evidence bar; nothing here is a generic coaching point. The grey line says what it rests on; the button opens the sequences.

Beating their press

  1. Copy the sides that escaped it: Liverpool got out 73% (long on 27%).

    Average escape rate against them is 49%.

Transitions

  1. When you win it, go down their right side immediately.

    52% of the xG they concede after losing the ball comes down their right side (64 attacks, 11 shots), against 32% of their own attacking xG through that channel.

Shape and structurein possession, by phase

Where each player takes the ball in each phase of their possession, and who passes to whom. Event data has no off-ball positions, so this is the shape of their touches — the standard event-data proxy. A phase is defined by where the ball is, so the dots sit inside that phase's third (shaded): read the order and the width, not the depth of each line. Newcastle attack left to right.

Sven Botman → Lukás Hornícek: 41Malick Thiaw → Lukás Hornícek: 35Lukás Hornícek → Malick Thiaw: 32Lukás Hornícek → Sven Botman: 32Lewis Hall → Sven Botman: 29Sven Botman → Lewis Hall: 27Lukás Hornícek (GK) -- 246 touchesL. HornícekSven Botman (CB) -- 212 touchesS. BotmanMalick Thiaw (CB) -- 167 touchesM. ThiawLewis Hall (FB) -- 143 touchesL. HallNico González / Sean Steur (CM) -- 90 touchesN. González / S. SteurLewis Miley (CM) -- 77 touchesL. MileyAmar Dedic (FB) -- 65 touchesA. DedicHarvey Barnes (W) -- 27 touchesH. BarnesYoane Wissa (ST) -- 27 touchesY. Wissa

attacking → · shaded = the build-up zone

Most involved
  • Lukás Hornícek45% of build-up phases
  • Sven Botman34% of build-up phases
  • Malick Thiaw27% of build-up phases
  • Lewis Hall23% of build-up phases
Main connections
  • Sven Botman → Lukás Hornícek41
  • Malick Thiaw → Lukás Hornícek35
  • Lukás Hornícek → Malick Thiaw32
  • Lukás Hornícek → Sven Botman32
  • Lewis Hall → Sven Botman29
  • Sven Botman → Lewis Hall27

461 build-up phases. Dot = the median spot of a player's touches in this phase; size = share of touches; lines = consecutive touches between two players.

Their pressout of possession

30defensive actions per match in the opponent's final 40%
49%of opponent build-ups got out into the next third
3.5high regains per match
26%of those regains led to a shot

Who presses

  • Yoane Wissa33
  • Nico González27
  • Joe Willock22
  • Lewis Miley17
  • Harvey Barnes17
  • Anthony Elanga13

Tackles, interceptions, recoveries, blocks, challenges and fouls in the opponent's final 40%.

Every ball won in the opponent's third, by source

178 in the window. The press on a build-up = the first two rows: 28 (3.5 a match).

sourcetimesshareper matchshot
press: settled build-up taken off them2715%3.419%
press: their restart forced into an error before they settled11%0.10%
counter-press: won straight back after losing it74%0.90%
second ball: the opponent touched it but never controlled it14380%17.919%
↳ rebound after their own shot (saved or blocked)127%1.542%
↳ their cross / ball into the box, cleared5732%7.123%
↳ their long ball, only headed or touched away2313%2.917%
↳ after their own throw-in / set piece127%1.517%
↳ loose ball in their combination play (pass blocked or tackled)3922%4.98%

What triggers a regain

opponent wasshareleaguerank
passing forward43%25%2 / 20
dribbling or a loose touch21%31%18 / 20
passing to a full-back14%13%9 / 20
going long7%7%10 / 20
passing sideways4%6%15 / 20
passing back0%3%13 / 20
passing to the keeper0%0%9 / 20
a loose ball0%0%1 / 20
taking a throw-in0%3%13 / 20

Who got out, and how

0%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%share of build-ups that went longgot out of the pressLiverpool: got out 73%, went long 27% (15 build-ups)LiverpoolCoventry: got out 62%, went long 62% (8 build-ups)CoventryTottenham: got out 59%, went long 32% (22 build-ups)TottenhamCrystal Palace: got out 50%, went long 28% (18 build-ups)Crystal PalaceBournemouth: got out 44%, went long 38% (16 build-ups)Hull City: got out 43%, went long 43% (14 build-ups)Leeds: got out 42%, went long 46% (24 build-ups)Aston Villa: got out 33%, went long 52% (27 build-ups)

The opponents who went long most (51% of build-ups) got out 45% of the time; those who mostly played short (31% long) got out 57%. That is a lean, not proven at 20 matches (p=0.1987).

Best escapes: Liverpool 73%; Coventry 62%; Tottenham 59%. One dot per match; hover for the opponent.

Transitions

When they win it

12.8fast attacks per match (counters, high transitions, high ball-wins)
19%end in a shot

Most often started by Nico González (18), Yoane Wissa (10), Lewis Miley (10), Harvey Barnes (9).

Counter-press: losing it, by where

lost inlosseswon back within 5sled to a shot
own third2733%30%
midfield19928%5%
final third25820%1%

When they lose it — where the damage comes

38%51 attacks · 8 shots · 0.7 xG11%15 attacks · 3 shots · 0.2 xG52%64 attacks · 11 shots · 0.9 xG

16.2 opponent attacks per match after winning the ball in open play that broke forward fast or reached the final third. Shading and % = share of the xG they produced, by the channel they used. Newcastle's goal is on the left. Central attacks carry more xG for every team, so compare with Newcastle's own attacking xG in the same kind of channel (centre, or the average flank): right 52% conceded vs 32% own, left 38% conceded vs 32% own, centre 11% conceded vs 36% own.

Right
Left
Centre

Transition types

Every real turnover, named by the situation it came from. "Fast" = the side with the ball reached the final third within 10 seconds. Only real turnovers appear here: for everything the press wins high, including restarts it forced into an error, see "Every ball won in the opponent’s third" in the press section.

When they win the ball

typetimessharefastshotxG
Won high from a settled build-up (press)265%lg 4%31%19%lg 9%0.3
Won after their long possession (10+ passes)499%lg 9%8%2%lg 3%0.0
Won straight back after losing it (counter-press)7113%lg 13%27%6%lg 7%0.8
Won by stopping their counter265%lg 4%0%0%lg 0%0.0
Won in midfield12523%lg 25%30%8%lg 6%1.0
Won deep in own third23042%lg 38%12%3%lg 3%0.9
Won from their set piece234%lg 5%9%4%lg 3%0.0

When they lose the ball

typetimesshareopponent fastshot againstxG
Lost in own build-up under pressure204%lg 5%40%15%lg 11%0.4
Lost after own long possession (10+ passes)509%lg 9%16%0%lg 4%0.0
Lost straight after winning it5410%lg 13%31%6%lg 8%0.2
Lost during own counter183%lg 4%6%6%lg 0%0.0
Lost in midfield16430%lg 25%37%7%lg 6%0.8
Lost in the final third (attack broke down)21539%lg 39%12%3%lg 3%0.5
Lost from own set piece244%lg 5%25%0%lg 3%0.0

Possessions and turnovers in detailsub-categories

Every controlled possession is typed by how it was played, and every real turnover (a possession that was established and then lost) by what the losing side was doing, how it lost the ball and what the winner did next. "Settled" = sustained or worked possessions; "unsettled" = short, second-ball, counter and direct possessions.

23%of their turnovers the opponent turns into a fast attack · league 21%
50%Lost balls the opponent can’t keep · league 50%
4%of balls lost from settled possession lead to a shot against · league 4%
6%of balls lost from unsettled possession lead to a shot against · league 6%
18%of the balls they win become a fast attack · league 21%
5%of the balls they win produce a shot · league 5%

How they play their possessions (690 controlled open-play possessions)

typetimesshareended in a shotavg passes
sustained circulation (10+ passes)7311%lg 11%18%lg 15%13.9
worked possession (4-9 passes)18927%lg 26%11%lg 10%5.9
direct attack11917%lg 13%3%lg 2%1.5
short possession (0-3 passes)10916%lg 22%2%1.7

When they lose the ball (545 turnovers) — their rest defence

the side losing it was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)5116%20%2%55%0%0.0pass cut out 29, long ball lost 11
worked possession (4-9 passes)14320%10%10%54%5%0.4pass cut out 76, long ball lost 31
direct attack10328%16%9%43%3%0.3long ball lost 58, pass cut out 33
short possession (0-3 passes)8525%12%13%47%7%0.6pass cut out 30, bad touch 19
second-ball possession11927%10%8%47%7%0.6pass cut out 58, long ball lost 23
counter / fast transition205%5%20%60%5%0.0pass cut out 10, bad touch 5
set piece2425%4%8%54%0%0.0pass cut out 11, long ball lost 8

How they lose it

mechanismtimesshareled to a shot against
pass cut out24745%lg 52%3%
long ball lost14727%lg 24%3%
bad touch7414%lg 14%5%
failed dribble367%lg 6%3%
tackled / dispossessed346%lg 6%9%

When they win the ball (550 turnovers) — what they do with it

the opponent was in…timesfast attacksecuredlost straight backcan’t keep itshotxGhow it was lost
sustained circulation (10+ passes)508%8%6%74%2%0.0pass cut out 33, long ball lost 8
worked possession (4-9 passes)12218%18%7%51%7%0.8pass cut out 67, long ball lost 20
direct attack6626%15%15%39%3%0.1long ball lost 32, pass cut out 28
short possession (0-3 passes)12125%17%5%47%7%1.3pass cut out 52, long ball lost 27
second-ball possession13217%11%8%59%5%0.8pass cut out 75, long ball lost 23
counter / fast transition363%6%8%72%0%0.0pass cut out 24, long ball lost 5
set piece239%17%4%57%4%0.0pass cut out 15, long ball lost 5

Fast attack = their final third or box reached within 10s. Secured = kept 10s+ or 4+ passes. Lost straight back = controlled, then lost within 5s. Can’t keep it = won the ball but never got it under control (cleared it, headed it away, blocked it or lost it at once).

Phase by phase: the typessub-categories

Each phase split into the situations it is made of, every row with its league median and clips. Shots are their own category: a possession that ends in a shot has finished, it has not lost the ball.

Build-up: how it starts and how it gets out (190 build-ups)

typetimessharegot outreached the boxlost in build-upshot
from the keeper / goal kick, played out short2513%lg 17%84%36%12%12%
from the keeper / goal kick, went long (bypass)2614%lg 13%19%4%77%0%
from the keeper / goal kick, stuck / recycled105%0%0%40%0%
from the back line, played out short168%lg 8%81%38%25%12%
from the back line, went long (bypass)95%lg 5%22%0%78%11%
from the back line, stuck / recycled74%0%14%14%0%
from a throw-in, played out short137%lg 4%77%38%23%8%
from a throw-in, went long (bypass)105%lg 3%10%0%80%0%
from a throw-in, stuck / recycled63%0%0%17%0%
straight after winning it, played out short2915%lg 16%76%10%21%0%
straight after winning it, went long (bypass)2111%lg 11%24%10%62%5%
straight after winning it, stuck / recycled189%0%22%39%6%

Their press: what happens to every opponent build-up (160)

outcometimesshareopponent shot
won it high149%lg 10%0%
forced long, then won it back5333%lg 26%0%
forced long, they kept it106%lg 5%20%
they played through short4629%lg 30%13%
kept them stuck (recycled back)3723%lg 26%11%

Won high = the ball won in the opponent's own third. Forced long = the opponent left its third with a long ball (then either lost it in that possession, or kept it).

Chance creation: what created their shots

created byshotsshare of open playxGxG per shotgoals
cross710%lg 12%1.40.21lg 0.111
cutback23%lg 9%0.20.09lg 0.120
through ball34%lg 3%0.80.27lg 0.171
short pass / combination4362%lg 52%3.00.07lg 0.086
long ball23%lg 4%0.10.05lg 0.081
individual (dribble / self-made)69%lg 9%0.40.07lg 0.081
rebound / second ball69%lg 9%0.60.10lg 0.130
corner (set piece)7–0.50.071
free kick (indirect) (set piece)12–0.60.051
direct free kick (set piece)2–0.10.030
throw-in (set piece)5–0.40.080
penalty (set piece)1–0.80.790

Chances they concede: what created the opponent's shots

created byshotssharexGxG per shotgoals
cross89%lg 12%0.90.111
cutback44%lg 9%0.80.190
through ball11%lg 3%0.10.090
short pass / combination5055%lg 53%3.80.086
long ball33%lg 4%0.20.050
individual (dribble / self-made)1314%lg 10%1.00.080
rebound / second ball1213%lg 9%1.50.131
corner (set piece)24–2.20.090
free kick (indirect) (set piece)9–1.70.190
direct free kick (set piece)4–0.10.020
throw-in (set piece)8–0.70.082
penalty (set piece)2–1.60.792

How their shots end

endingshotsshare
goal1213%lg 9%
keeper held it77%lg 9%
keeper parried it66%lg 12%
blocked3032%lg 32%
off target3941%lg 37%
hit the woodwork11%

Penalties excluded. A "save" by an outfield player is a block.

Keeper transitions

After their keeper held a shot (13), median release 10s; league share turned into a fast attack 14%:

their keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack00%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack323%
keeper slowed the game1077%

After their own shot was held by the opponent keeper (7); league share broken against fast 17%:

the opponent keeper held it, then…timesshare
keeper released fast -> fast attack00%
keeper released quickly, no fast attack00%
keeper slowed the game7100%

Fast = the keeper's side reached its final third within 15s of the save. Quick = first pass within 6s.

When it breaks downevery phase

The other half of each phase above. Their own phases break down when they lose the ball (real turnovers only); their press and block break down when the opponent gets through. Each card: how often, how, where, who is involved, and what it costs them.

Build-up breaks down

140 balls lost in 461 build-up phases (30%)

giveaways per 10 build-up phases: 2.7/10 · league 2.7/10

How
  • long ball lost96
  • pass cut out22
  • bad touch11
  • failed dribble6
Where
  • centre31
  • left half-space29
  • right wing28
  • left wing28
Who
  • Lukás Hornícek41
  • Sven Botman25
  • Malick Thiaw21
  • Lewis Hall15

What it costs: 32% turned into a fast attack · 41% the opponent can’t keep · 6% led to a shot · 0.9 xG

Progression breaks down

186 balls lost in 624 middle-third phases (30%)

giveaways per 10 middle-third phases: 2.7/10 · league 2.8/10

How
  • pass cut out100
  • long ball lost30
  • bad touch28
  • tackled / dispossessed16
Where
  • left half-space40
  • right wing38
  • left wing37
  • right half-space36
Who
  • Yoane Wissa30
  • Lewis Hall17
  • Amar Dedic13
  • Harvey Barnes13

What it costs: 28% turned into a fast attack · 46% the opponent can’t keep · 6% led to a shot · 0.7 xG

Final third breaks down

189 balls lost in 433 final-third phases (44%)

deliveries into the box that fail to arrive: 61% · league 58%

How
  • pass cut out117
  • bad touch31
  • failed dribble17
  • tackled / dispossessed13
Where
  • centre72
  • left wing33
  • left half-space31
  • right half-space29
Who
  • Harvey Barnes33
  • Matias Fernandez-Pardo22
  • Joe Willock19
  • Yoane Wissa16

What it costs: 9% turned into a fast attack · 61% the opponent can’t keep · 2% led to a shot · 0.3 xG

59 deliveries into the box did not arrive

Counter-attacks fail

20 of 41 counter-attacks lost (49%)

attacking transitions that produce a shot: 19% · league 18%

How
  • pass cut out10
  • bad touch5
  • failed dribble3
  • tackled / dispossessed2
Where
  • left wing7
  • right wing5
  • centre5
  • right half-space2
Who
  • Harvey Barnes4
  • Lewis Hall3
  • Anthony Elanga3
  • Jacob Murphy2

What it costs: 5% turned into a fast attack · 60% the opponent can’t keep · 5% led to a shot · 0.0 xG

41 counters: 14 ended in a shot, 20 were lost, 7 slowed down or went out

Their press is beaten

70 of 144 opponent build-ups got out (49%)

opponent build-ups that get out cleanly: 49% · league 45%

How
  • short pass33
  • long ball24
  • carry7
Where
  • right wing17
  • left wing12
  • left half-space12
  • centre12
Who
  • centre-back18
  • goalkeeper17
  • central midfielder11
  • full-back8

What it costs: 41% reached the final third · 17% led to a shot · 0.9 xG

Sides are their own: "down the left" = down their left.

Their block is broken

160 box entries in 493 opponent final-third phases (32%)

opponent final-third phases that create: 56% · league 50%

How
  • carry93
  • short pass30
  • dribble13
  • long ball11
Where
  • centre56
  • left half-space38
  • right half-space35
  • left wing21
Who
  • striker32
  • wide midfielder29
  • full-back25
  • winger24

What it costs: 46% led to a shot · 10.4 xG

Sides are their own.

Set pieces backfire

24 set pieces lost in open play

How
  • pass cut out11
  • long ball lost8
  • bad touch3
  • failed dribble1
Where
  • right half-space6
  • left wing5
  • centre5
  • left half-space5
Who
  • Sven Botman4
  • Lewis Hall3
  • Lewis Miley2
  • Anthony Elanga2

What it costs: 25% turned into a fast attack · 54% the opponent can’t keep · 0% led to a shot · 0.0 xG

Their corners and free kicks that were lost in open play, and what the opponent did next.

Set piecesattacking corners

36corners (4.5 per match)
17%end in a shot
0.3xG from corners

Delivery

  • central39%shot 7% · 0.1 xG
  • far post28%shot 30% · 0.2 xG
  • near post25%shot 11% · 0.0 xG
  • short8%shot 33% · 0.0 xG

Who

Takers: Lewis Hall (19), Harvey Barnes (7), Jacob Murphy (5)

First contact in the box: Yoane Wissa (2), Joelinton (2), Nick Woltemade (1), Dan Burn (1)

Key players

What each player does in the phases, counted over the window. Only lines that clear a minimum count are shown.

Harvey BarnesW
  • gets it into the box 23 times (35% end in a shot)
  • 19 shots, 1.6 npxG, 2 goals
Joe WillockAM
  • takes it into the final third 15 times (47% become a chance)
  • 16 shots, 1.3 npxG, 2 goals
Yoane WissaST
  • gets it into the box 10 times (50% end in a shot)
  • 18 shots, 2.8 npxG, 1 goals
  • 50 giveaways, 4 led to an opponent shot
Sven BotmanCB
  • plays 33 build-up exits (45% carry on cleanly)
Lewis HallFB
  • plays 15 build-up exits (47% carry on cleanly)
  • takes it into the final third 23 times (35% become a chance)
Malick ThiawCB
  • plays 29 build-up exits (62% carry on cleanly)
  • takes it into the final third 15 times (33% become a chance)
Nico GonzálezCM
  • takes it into the final third 15 times (47% become a chance)
  • 16 ball wins high up the pitch
Matias Fernandez-PardoAM
  • gets it into the box 11 times (18% end in a shot)
Lukás HornícekGK
  • plays 29 build-up exits (38% carry on cleanly)

Where a player changes the outcome (p<0.05)

Against the leaguesupporting evidence

The comparison behind the report: each behaviour as a rate per opportunity, ranked among the 20 Premier League clubs' full seasons, with how many of the 8 matches sat on the same side of the league median. "Style" is never a verdict.

behaviourNewcastleleague medianrankmatches
weaknessxG conceded from settled attacks1.06 xG0.55 xG1 / 206/8
weaknessfinal-third giveaways regained within 5s20%27%20 / 207/8
stylecutback per 100 final third phases0.9/1002.6/10020 / 208/8
styleone two wall pass per 100 progression phases0.8/1001.9/10020 / 207/8
styleturnovers that came from a pass being cut out45%52%20 / 206/8
stylecontrolled possessions that are short possessions (0-3 passes)16%22%19 / 208/8
styleturnovers lost in midfield30%25%1 / 206/8
weaknessgiveaways regained within 5s (counter-press)24%29%19 / 207/8
stylefinal-third entries down the left54%45%1 / 208/8
styleone two wall pass per 100 build up phases0.4/1001.4/10020 / 206/8
styleforward drop link per 100 build up phases0.9/1002.1/10020 / 208/8
styleoverlap per 100 progression phases1.0/1002.2/10019 / 207/8
weaknessnon-penalty xG conceded1.61 xG1.23 xG2 / 206/8
stylebuild-up exits down the right30%39%19 / 207/8
weaknessopponent final-third phases that created56%50%2 / 207/8
styleearly cross per 100 final third phases4.8/1007.4/10019 / 207/8
stylebuild-up exits played by a centre-back47%34%2 / 205/8
Their most dangerous routes
phaseroutetimesshottheir average
How they change against different opponents
splitbehaviourabp
against the more aggressive pressers vs the deeper / passive sidescounter-attacks8.0/match4.5/match0.0153
when leading vs when levelfinal-third phases that created (box entry or key pass)47%30%0.013
when trailing vs when levelfinal-third phases that created (box entry or key pass)54%30%0.0001
when trailing vs when levelmiddle-third phases that progressed into the final third73%55%0.0257
when trailing vs when levelbuild-up exits with a long ball29%51%0.0308
second half vs first halffinal-third phases that created (box entry or key pass)53%39%0.0034
The 8 matches
dateopponentresultnpxGopponent presswhat happened
2026-08-23vs LiverpoolD 2-21.4–2.8pressed aggressivelyDrew 2-2 (1.43 v 2.77 xG). Liverpool pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 8.0, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: non-penalty xG conceded 2.77 xG, far above their usual 1.61 xG.
2026-08-29at TottenhamW 2-00.8–1.1mid-intensity pressWon 2-0 on fewer chances (0.78 v 1.13 xG). Tottenham pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 12.8, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: PPDA, strict (opponent passes in their own 60% per committed ball-winning action) 20.8, far above their usual 12.7.
2026-09-05vs BournemouthD 2-20.7–1.3pressed aggressivelyDrew 2-2 (0.65 v 1.27 xG). Bournemouth pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 11.9, league median 14.4) and went long on 55% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: chance-creation phases that produced a shot 18%, far below their usual 34%.
2026-09-14at LeedsL 1-40.7–2.1mid-intensity pressLost 1-4 and the chances agreed (0.70 v 2.05 xG). Leeds pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 12.4, league median 14.4) and went long on 58% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: build-up exits with a long ball 62%, far above their usual 43%.
2026-09-19vs Hull CityW 2-10.7–1.5mid-intensity pressWon 2-1 on fewer chances (0.67 v 1.54 xG). Hull City pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 16.1, league median 14.4) and went long on 55% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: giveaways regained within 5s (counter-press) 33%, far above their usual 24%.
2026-10-12at CoventryL 1-41.9–0.7sat deep / passiveLost 1-4 despite the better chances (1.91 v 0.70 xG) -- a finishing / goalkeeping defeat more than a tactical one. Coventry defended deep and let them have the ball (strict PPDA 54.7, league median 14.4) and went long on 62% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: final-third phases that created (box entry or key pass) 59%, far above their usual 46%.
2026-10-17vs Aston VillaL 0-11.1–1.3pressed aggressivelyLost 0-1 and the chances agreed (1.14 v 1.32 xG). Aston Villa pressed harder than a typical Premier League side does (strict PPDA 10.6, league median 14.4) and went long on 70% of their own build-ups. Biggest departure from their norm: build-up exits down the right 60%, far above their usual 31%.
2026-10-25at Crystal PalaceW 2-00.9–2.1mid-intensity pressWon 2-0 on fewer chances (0.87 v 2.09 xG). Crystal Palace pressed at roughly league-average intensity (strict PPDA 14.6, league median 14.4). Biggest departure from their norm: opponent final-third phases that created 64%, far above their usual 55%.

Method and limits

◀ Tactical Analyst
Vision AI · building report