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Player reportLigue 1 2026

Casper Tengstedt

Toulouse
Penalty-box poacher ST
4.7 shots/90 · 0.19 xG per shot — shoots from high-value spots · 0.91 xG/90
strikerpoacherbox threatfinishing
422
minutes
6 apps
5
goals
4.28 xG
4.3
xG
22 shots
22
shots
0.19 xG/shot
1
box entries
0.21/90
3
key passes
0.64/90
11
dribbles
18% won
71%
pass completion
75 passes
Overview

The player

Who he is and how he compares with his peers.

01

What Patterns Define Him?

His repeatable signature. A step only appears if its reliability score (sample size × match coverage) reaches at least Medium confidence — pattern mining, not anecdotes.

LINK
lay-off and combine
3 key passes · 71% completion · 75× in 6/6 matches
↓
FINISH
shoot from central zones
4.28 xG · 22× in 6/6 matches
↓
CONVERT
goals vs expected
5 goals (+0.7 vs xG) · 5× in 6/6 matches
Signature: Link → Finish → Convert — the only steps proven repeatable this season (3 of 4 in the full pattern). Not enough evidence yet for the rest of the chain below.
Not a pattern: receive / move — 1× (insufficient confidence, hidden — not enough evidence yet) — omitted from the signature rather than presented as one.
In possession

In possession

What he does with the ball: build-up, progression, creation, carrying and finishing.

06

How dangerous are his carries?

Real ball-carries

17 tracked carries (3.6/90, 4 progressive, 141m total) — the ball moving with his touches, a different signal from dribbles below (beating an opponent 1v1). this counts every touch-carry, not just his dribble attempts below — a fuller picture of how much of his ball-carrying is control-and-move rather than beating a man.

6%29%6%6%6%6%6%18%12%6%
progressivelateral/short% of his 17 carries originating in each zone · own goal left, attacking →
Every carry, exact path — median 8m, longest 17m
By zone — where the carry started → where it ended
2Outside → Inside
6Inside → Inside
7Outside → Outside
2Inside → Outside
First (17)grouped by carry pattern (start + end position), largest group first
startendown goal left, attacking →

Dribbles (1v1s)

Does he drop to link or stay central? Touches by channel. Season rate: 2.35 dribbles attempted /90.

brighter band = more dribbles · own goal left, attacking →
INSIDE 27%
OUTSIDE 73%
Dribble location — 3 inside · 8 outside
Right Wing
2 · 18%
Right Half-Space
0 · 0%
Central
2 · 18%
Left Half-Space
1 · 9%
Left Wing
6 · 55%
Vision AI His touches are spread wide — a roaming forward.
04

How does he create chances?

3 key passes (0.64/90), 0 of them assists — where his chance creation specifically comes from, 18 zones (6×3), showing his share of key passes originating there.

Chance creation — key pass origin zone share
Filter:
33%33%33%
chance creation (3)assist (0)% of the selected group's key passes originating in each zone
Box deliveries — key passes reaching the final third, by flank
from the left (2)from the right (1)of 3 key passes landing in the final thirdattacking ↑ toward goal
02

Can he finish?

22 shots · 4.28 xG · 5 goals (+0.72 vs xG). Mostly right-footed. Circle size = xG.

shots  22
on target  12
goals  5
xG  4.28
xG on target  4.08
xG / shot  0.195
Where he shoots from — click an area of the box
05

Where does he become vulnerable?

31 possessions lost. Directness has a cost — the question is where. Attacking-third losses are cheap; deep ones are dangerous.

21
attacking third (cheap)
9
middle third
1
own third (dangerous)
Vision AI 68% of losses are in the attacking third — he gambles where a turnover costs little.
Mistake danger (proxy): 1.17 danger-index/90 · 0.177 avg/turnover. Weights each loss by threat conceded at that location. True xT-conceded needs the opponent possession model; positional proxy.
03

Tactical patterns — how his football actually looks

Three clustered sequence diagrams from his own event data — his three busiest routes: the way he progresses, the pattern behind his chances, and where a turnover turns dangerous.

own goal left, attacking →
Where do his chances come from?
Of 3 key passes, his busiest route is a delivery where he plays inside from the right hs toward the central in the final third — 1 times. The receiver isn't identifiable in this data, only where the pass started and ended.
Where does he lose the ball most?
This is a RATE, not a raw count — the share of his touches in each zone that end in a turnover, so a zone he simply plays in more often doesn't automatically look riskier. His weakest zone is the right wing in the final third: 62% of his 13 touches there are lost (8 times).
—1 touch · too few—1 touch · too few—4 touches · too few—3 touches · too few—1 touch · too few—5 touches · too few—4 touches · too few—3 touches · too few—6 touches · too few22%2/9 lost62%8/13 lost—4 touches · too few—4 touches · too few—6 touches · too few18%2/11 lostRWRHSCLHSLWDEFMIDATT
Out of possession

Out of possession

Where and how he defends and presses.

08

How & where does he defend?

28 defensive actions across the season (6.0/90). Where he wins the ball, and how — the core question for a defender. Aerial duels are not recorded for this competition, so aerial dominance is not measured here.

click a card to isolate that action type · own goal left, attacking →
1
tackles · 0% won
0
interceptions · 0.0/90
7
recoveries · 1.5/90
3
clearances · 0.6/90
1
blocks
56
avg action height
12
won high (att 3rd)
9
middle third
7
own third
Vision AI A front-foot / high defender. He wins the ball mainly by stepping in — tackles, interceptions & recoveries outweigh clearances. 8 proactive ball-wins (1.7/90), tackle success 0%. He defends high, stepping out to intercept — suits a high line.

Defensive work in the attacking half

Ball-wins in the attacking half only (own half vs. attacking half, a simple 2-way split, not the usual thirds) — the clearest single signal of how much he presses and recovers the ball high up the pitch.

17
attacking-half actions · 3.63/90
07

Against Different Pressing Intensities

Split by how hard the opponent pressed (opponent PPDA — lower = more intense press). Does Casper Tengstedt keep producing when the game is tight and the press is high? Tiers of ~2-2 matches — directional evidence, not proof.

press tier
xT /90
prog /90
key P /90
dribble%
High press (PPDA 5.3, 2m)
0.16
0.6
1.17
20%
Mid press (PPDA 6.4, 2m)
0.14
0.0
0.00
25%
Low press (PPDA 7.1, 2m)
0.58
0.0
1.15
0%
Team

Team context

How much of the team runs through him, and what changes without him.

09

Impact on the Team

Toulouse's output per match with Casper Tengstedt (6 matches) versus without him (2 matches). Insufficient evidence — the without-sample is only 2 matches; treat every Δ below as noise until more games exist. A proper on-off model needs many more minutes.

WITH (6)
WITHOUT (2)
Δ
goals for /match
1.67
1.00
+0.67
xG for /match
1.62
0.00
+1.62
goals against /match
1.17
2.00
-0.83
points /match
1.50
0.50
+1.00
10

His Share of the Team

Of everything Toulouse produced this season, the categories where the biggest share ran through Casper Tengstedt specifically — his share of the team total, not a per-90 rate.

category
share
him / team
goals
50%
5 / 10
expected goals (xG)
16%
4.3 / 27.0
shots
9%
22 / 255
Recruitment

Style and verdict

Style profile, closest comparables, and the summary.

11

Playing-Style Profile

Not raw event counts — football style scores: weighted models scored 0–100 against the 354 strikers in the pool (min 180 min). This is what separates players who post similar numbers but play differently. Proxy dimensions are inferred from on-ball data; true off-ball running / under-pressure context is not measured.

Poacher73%Target man71%False 962%Transition runner53%
Why Poacher 73%: a weighted blend of box threat 92 (weight 55%) + final-third threat 49 (weight 30%) + press resistance 29 (weight 15%). The score reflects how distinctively his profile SHAPE matches this archetype vs his peers.
Elite
box threat, territory (wide vs central), line-breaking
Strong
—
Average
through-balls, progression, passing directness, creativity, defensive aggression, final-third threat
Weak
receiving zones, transition, crossing, retention, press resistance, build-up, carrying, dribbling, ball-winning
Unknown
aerial ability, marking, off-ball running — not in event data
Box threat
92
Territory (wide vs central)
91
Line-breaking
85
Through-balls ~proxy
66
Progression
65
Passing directness
61
Creativity
58
Defensive aggression
51
Final-third threat
49
Receiving zones
38
Transition ~proxy
35
Crossing
33
Retention
31
Press resistance ~proxy
29
Build-up
29
Carrying
25
Dribbling
23
Ball-winning
11
12

Similar Players — in style space

Closest comparables measured on the style scores above, within the same position family — so it separates how players are alike, not just how much they touch the ball. Each line explains the shared strength and the divergent mechanism. A light physical-profile term (height / weight; this player: 184 cm / 79 kg) is included at a quarter of one style axis's weight — enough to break ties between stylistic twins, not to override style. Scope: pooled across the Ligue 1, Bundesliga, La Liga, Premier League and Serie A, percentiled within each player's own league before comparing — a match from another league is marked with its league name.

Style, not quality: a high match here means two players tend to produce the ball in similar ways — it is not a ranking, a scouting recommendation, or a claim that they are equally good.

Orri Óskarsson Real Sociedad · La Liga · 186 cm / 76 kg
77%
Driven by: ball-winning (20%), box threat (15%), build-up (14%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via territory (wide vs central), final-third threat.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds · Premier League · 187 cm / 71 kg
75%
Driven by: ball-winning (16%), press resistance (15%), build-up (13%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via box threat, retention; Calvert-Lewin more via crossing, passing directness.
Viktor Gyökeres Arsenal · Premier League · 189 cm / 90 kg
59%
Driven by: build-up (19%), ball-winning (18%), dribbling (18%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via line-breaking, territory (wide vs central); Gyökeres more via crossing, receiving zones.
Andrej Ilic Union Berlin · Bundesliga 25/26 · 189 cm / 86 kg
55%
Driven by: ball-winning (19%), build-up (17%), press resistance (14%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via territory (wide vs central), line-breaking; Ilic more via passing directness, defensive aggression.
Chupe Malaga · La Liga · 185 cm / 72 kg
55%
Driven by: ball-winning (19%), press resistance (17%), dribbling (15%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via territory (wide vs central), box threat; Chupe more via passing directness, crossing.
Valentín Castellanos West Ham · Premier League 25/26 · 178 cm / 70 kg
51%
Driven by: press resistance (15%), line-breaking (12%), territory (wide vs central) (12%). Different mechanism — Tengstedt more via box threat, territory (wide vs central); Castellanos more via ball-winning, passing directness.
13

Summary

Casper Tengstedt is a poacher / target man: 5 goals from 4.28 xG (+0.72 vs expected), 22 shots, 1 box entries. A clinical finisher. [Off-ball runs, aerials and hold-up under contact need tracking/aerial data.]

Based on 6 matches (422 minutes) — an early read, treat with caution until more minutes are logged. He profiles as a poacher / target man — best used in a system built around that identity. His biggest room for growth is press resistance — even a modest improvement there would meaningfully lift his overall poacher profile.
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